Canada’s Housing Market Outlook: Why 2026 Could Mark a Turning Point

Canada’s resale housing market may be gearing up for a modest rebound, according to the latest outlook from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). Rather than forecasting a dramatic surge, the data points to a gradual return of activity driven largely by buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines.

Here’s what homeowners, buyers, and investors should know about where the market may be headed:

A Market Finding Its Footing

After a choppy recovery through the latter part of 2025, Canada’s resale market appears to be stabilizing. CREA’s updated forecast suggests that while momentum slowed earlier in the year partly due to economic uncertainty linked to potential U.S. tariffs conditions improved as the year progressed.

Sales began strengthening in spring 2025, rising notably through the summer months before flattening toward year-end. This uneven pattern set the stage for what economists expect could be a more consistent recovery in 2026.

Key takeaway: The market isn’t expected to boom but it is showing signs of steady normalization.

Pent-Up Demand Could Drive 2026 Activity

One of the biggest forces expected to shape the 2026 housing market is delayed buyer demand.

For several years, many would-be purchasers especially first-time buyers have remained on the sidelines due to:

• Elevated interest rates

• Affordability pressures

• Economic uncertainty

According to CREA, borrowing costs may not have dropped as far as buyers once hoped, but they have likely improved enough to bring some purchasers back into the market.

A notable signal came from the Bank of Canada in late October 2025, when policymakers indicated rates were likely near their floor. That guidance could give hesitant buyers more confidence to move forward in 2026.

National Sales Forecast for 2026

CREA projects that approximately 494,512 residential properties will trade hands via MLS® Systems in 2026.

 Projected growth: +5.1% compared to 2025

Where growth may be strongest

• British Columbia

• Ontario

Both provinces are expected to see sales climb by more than 8%, largely because their markets experienced deeper slowdowns and therefore have more room to rebound.

In many other regions, activity is already closer to long-term averages, meaning gains there may be more moderate.

What’s Expected for Home Prices

Price growth nationally is forecast to remain relatively contained.

• 2026 national average price: $698,881

• Projected increase: +2.8%

Regional trends to watch

More subdued growth expected in:

• British Columbia

• Alberta

• Ontario

• Nova Scotia

Stronger relative gains forecast in:

• Saskatchewan

• Quebec

• Newfoundland and Labrador

However, even the stronger markets are expected to cool compared with 2025, when price increases in some areas ran between 6% and 8%. CREA anticipates those gains moderating to roughly 3%–6% in 2026.

Early Look Ahead to 2027

CREA’s extended forecast suggests the market’s gradual recovery could continue into 2027.

Projected 2027 figures:

• Home sales: 511,966 (+3.5%)

• Average price: $714,991 (+2.3%)

If realized, this would mark roughly seven consecutive years where the national average home price has hovered near the $700,000 range;  a sign of longer-term price stability at elevated levels.

What This Means for Buyers and Sellers

For buyers

• More inventory and stable prices could create better entry opportunities

• Waiting for dramatically lower rates may no longer be realistic

• Competition could gradually increase as sidelined buyers return

For sellers

• The environment may improve, but expect measured  not explosive price growth

• Proper pricing and strong marketing will remain critical

• Markets like B.C. and Ontario could see the most noticeable pickup in activity

Final Thoughts

The outlook for 2026 suggests a housing market that is recovering carefully rather than accelerating rapidly. Pent-up demand, slightly improved affordability, and more rate certainty are expected to bring buyers back but in a controlled way.

For anyone considering a move in the next 12–24 months, understanding these trends will be key to making smart, well-timed decisions.

Thinking of Buying or Selling in Vancouver? Let’s Talk

Liza Marie Moyo Real Estate
“Your Trusted Vancouver Realtor”

 lizamarierealty@gmail.com
 778-228-7918
 www.trustedrealtorvancouver.com